HOW RUSSIAN INTERVENTIONISM AFFECTS THE FOREIGN POLICY DISCOURSE OF UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

From the very beginning, 2022 shocked the world with political events, after which the world order that existed before will no longer be the same. First, the tragic domestic political events in Kazakhstan that occurred in January 2022 became the main reason for the actual use of the CSTO forces (where Russia is a clear leader), which, in turn, renewed disputes over the participation of Uzbekistan in this organization. Then, the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, which began in February 2022, identified new challenges for the further development of the foreign policies of all Central Asian countries. Part of the region is in integration associations controlled by Moscow, such as the EAEU and the CSTO. However, membership in them does not lead to automatic approval of all Russian military-political actions. In particular, the Central Asian region countries avoid clear support for the war in Ukraine, limiting themselves to “neutrality” and vague wording. This article raises few questions: How to develop a foreign policy in the terms of the current and future consequences of Russian-Ukrainian war? How to maintain a balance between cooperation with the Russian Federation and the development of new regionalism, while ensuring the national security of the country? To answer the given research question, qualitative methods, such as statistical analysis and process tracing would be the most appropriate to use. Literature on the related topics suggests qualitative methods as more proper tools for the current study. Anti-Russian sanctions have already affected the economies of Moscow's partners in the EAEU. The dependence of agriculture on imported seeds and equipment has affected, supply chains have been disrupted, and the fall of the ruble reduces the income of exporters. In the context of the current crisis, very favorable conditions are emerging for expanding the regional policy of Uzbekistan.