Abstract:
This article examines the link between logistics indicators and economic
growth in Kazakhstan in the period 1995-2019. Factors and the causal relationship
between the indicators of transport development and economic growth, using the models
of total production, demand and vector error correction, are studied. The analysis
established specifics of the relationship between indicators of various types of transport
and economic growth and their mutual influence, both in terms of directions and the
nature of the relationship. A bi-directional cause-and-effect relationship between railway
transport infrastructure and economic growth has been identified according to the
Granger test. It was found that in a small economy, road and sea transport in the long
term will lead to a higher rate of economic growth, and vice versa, economic growth
encourages the development of pipeline transport and this in turn, in a one-way direction,
stimulates the development of all other types of transport. It was revealed that economic
growth in Kazakhstan leads to an increase in demand for transport and logistics services
and their infrastructure to a lesser extent than in countries with large economies. To
improve the effectiveness of the economy, a differentiated approach to transport policy is
recommended depending on the highlighted long-term relationship between the studied
parameters. Our research indicates that conditions for road and sea transport in
Kazakhstan should be improved to stimulate economic growth. The results of the study
can be used as recommendations for developing a long-term transport policy.
