Abstract:
The variations of climate and water resources in the Buqtyrma River Basin (BRB), which is
located at the cross-section of the Altai Mountains, Eurasian Steppe and Tian Shan Mountains, have a
great significance for agriculture and ecosystems in the region. Changing climatic conditions will
change the hydrological cycle in the whole basin. In this study, we examined the historical trends
and change points of the climate and hydrological variables, the contributions of climate change and
human activities to runoff changes, and the relative changes in the runoff to the precipitation and
potential evapotranspiration from 1950 to 2015 by using the Mann–Kendall trend test, Pettitt test,
double cumulative curve and elasticities methods. In addition, a multi-model ensemble (MME) of
the six general circulation models (GCMs) for two future periods (2036–2065 and 2071–2100) was
assessed to estimate the spatio-temporal variations in precipitation and temperature under two
representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) scenarios. Our study detected that the
runoff change-point occurred in 1982. The impacts induced by climate change on runoff change
were as follows—70% in the upstream, 62.11% in the midstream and 15.34% in the downstream area.
The impacts of human activity on runoff change were greater in the downstream area (84.66%) than
in the upstream and midstream areas. A continuously increasing trend was indicated regarding
average annual temperature under RCP 4.5 (from 0.37 to 0.33 ◦C/decade) and under RCP 8.5 (from
0.50 to 0.61 ◦C/decade) during two future periods. Additionally, an increasing trend in predicted
precipitation was exhibited under RCP 4.5 (13.6% and 19.9%) and under RCP 8.5 (10.5% and 18.1%)
during both future periods. The results of the relative runoff changes to the predicted precipitation
and potential evapotranspiration were expected to increase during two future time periods under
RCP 4.5 (18.53% and 25.40%) and under RCP 8.5 (8.91% and 13.38%) relative to the base period.
The present work can provide a reference for the utilization and management of regional water
resources and for ecological environment protection.
